After a loss on Friday, for my final Football Bet of the Day at Evens or Longer before a fortnight off, the selection for Saturday comes from the Premier League and Villa Park as I think we could be in for a barnburner. Colleagues will sit in and takeover over the next couple of weeks…

Football Bet of the Day – Saturday 18 March, 2023

  • Back Over 3.5 Goals in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth at 9/4

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Aston Villa have scored in every game since Christmas. That is a stat worth noting. They have also been involved in three games in their past six where over 3.5 has been a winner. They are not great defensively but they are certainly much better going forward under new manager Unai Emery. Ollie Watkins has become a real force and is one of the most in-form strikers in the Premier League.

Bournemouth gave Arsenal a real scare a fortnight back in their previous away game taking a 2-0 lead before the league leaders roared back to win it deep in added time. Watching them last week against Liverpool showed that they are more than decent going forward and I really like the look of Dango Ouattara. They aren’t shy in getting players forward and if they are to survive, they aren’t going to do so by sitting back with ten-men behind the ball.

The 9/4 available for over 3.5 goals has an implied odds of 30.8% and that feels roughly about right. I reckon if you play this game ten times then the overs comes in four of them therefore it is just about a value play but one I have a good gut feeling about.

*All prices correct at the time of writing.

Football Bet of the Day Profit/Loss 2023:

Staked: 71 Points
Returns: 75.23 Points
P/L: +4.23 Points

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