Nineteen go to post for the Welsh Grand National – a Premier Handicap over an extremely testing 3m6½f at Chepstow on Tuesday, and I’ve got the pleasure of trying to find the winner of this year’s renewal.

Before anything else, I must talk about the ground. The Welsh Grand National is nearly always ran in grueling conditions. You might remember the likes of Gold Cup-winning duo Synchronised and Native River slogging through the mud to victory in this race – well, I suggest you forget that this time.

As I write this, the official Going at Chepstow is Good to Soft (Good in places), which is quite incredible given they’ve had a whopping 68mm of rain in the past week.

The racecourse has undergone substantial drainage work this year, which has clearly worked a dream, so we’re almost certainly in for an uncharacteristically-dry Welsh Grand National.

With that in mind, and for other reasons I’m about to explain, the horse I’m tipping up to win the £85k pot is QUICK WAVE for Venetia Williams.

Bet on the Welsh Grand National with Betfred here

Now, I know what you might be thinking. ‘The 4/1 favourite in a 19-runner handicap?’ Hear me out…

I think, with the forecast quick ground, it’s going to take a classier type to win this season’s renewal of the Welsh Grand National – and for me, Quick Wave is the class act in this field.

She proved a lot when winning a competitive 3m5f handicap chase at Sandown last time out. She proved that he stays these extreme trips, that she acts on quicker ground and that she’s likely got loads in hand of the handicapper (see clip below).

Quick Wave only has to defy a 4lb penalty for that success, which I think she’s more than capable of doing.

As for her rivals, many of them – like The Galloping Bear and The Big Dog to name a couple – are unlikely to be unhappy with conditions and are generally vulnerable to a more unexposed type, who it appears Venetia Williams has started to figure out and is getting the best of.

Don’t fancy my selection? Well, there’s plenty of each-way value on offer if you fancy one. Check out Betfred’s full Welsh Grand National market here.

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