It is that time again when the Conservative Party gets to decide who the next Prime Minister of the country is. We seem to have been in this situation far too many times in recent history as strong and stable government has been thrown out of the window. The contenders are on manoeuvres but what is this, Boris Johnson on the verge of a dramatic return to 10 Downing Street? We look at the overnight market moves…
Last night I turned over to watch ITV News for some reason. I am a BBC (or Sky) guy usually but it wasn’t a great episode of The Simpsons on Sky Showcase, so seeing how the channel covered the drama at Westminster seemed worthwhile. They showed a VoxPop from the town where I currently reside and the overwhelming view of the people here is to Bring Back Boris. It didn’t shock me one iota.
For you see, a significant proportion of the British Public would like to see the former Prime Minister return to the top job in the land. They like his personality. It isn’t necessarily about his policies as they see him as a good lark. With the Conservative Party tanking in the polls, the idea of bringing back a proven winner (albeit with a rather significant amount of baggage) would appeal to some MPs, certainly those who are seeing their jobs coming under increasing threat should the country go to a General Election.
It is therefore no surprise to see his price drop in the market. Yesterday he started off at around 5/1 and had been at 10s a week ago. When I started writing this article at just before 9AM, he was 9/4 but as of 9:13AM, he’s shortened to 7/4. So the punters clearly like his chances.
The big question is whether or not he can gain the support of 100 or more MPs to get to the ballot. Should he be able to then the membership are highly likely to want him back. The vast majority never wanted him gone in the first place.
Once more it seems like internal Tory Party politics is going to shape the future of our country. David Cameron brought forward the EU Referendum in an attempt to quash the Brexit wing of the party, it did not work. Ever since that moment, the struggles between what Tory MPs and members want has dominated not only the political landscape but all of our lives in general.
If enough Conservative MPs want Boris back in the top job that he gets on the ballot of members then he’s all but a shoo-in. A lot of that depends on whether that arm of the party can coalesce around him and doesn’t splinter off with the likes of Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch standing and siphoning off votes. That 100 nomination mark is very high, so only three MPs at most can make it and the more candidates put themselves forward, the harder it will be to reach that number.
A return to office a mere two months after officially resigning would be one stunning comeback but with every passing tidbit from the right-wing newspapers and the political bubble, it is a comeback that seems to be gaining real momentum.
Keep an eye on who announces that they are putting themselves forward but as of the time of publication, Rishi Sunak is the 8/11 favourite with Boris Johnson still at 7/4. Penny Mordaunt briefly went odds-on Thursday afternoon but has now drifted to 5/1 as a two-horse race looks to be taking shape.
