Liz Truss may have only got the top job earlier this month but there are already real rumblings about her future. We take a look at the latest odds in the Liz Truss Exit Date market on Betfred…
A mini-budget from her Chancellor that caused the pound to crash against the dollar has been the catalyst for the latest drama coming out of Downing Street. You would have been pushed to find any positive media column inches about what Kwasi Kwarteng announced apart from in the most right-wing newspapers.
The general consensus was very much that the rich will benefit significantly more than the poor. In this climate where inflation is continuing to cause a prolonged cost of living crisis, that is not the way you want to be portrayed.
Seeing the pound crash to an all-time low against the dollar is another indicator that the markets are not confident in the economic plans of her Chancellor. With the fact that interest rates are now forecast to rise above 6%, that alone is enough for most people to take a second look at their plans but Mr. Kwarteng has doubled down on his plan. Many who had mortgages in the 90s will remember the sky-high cost and that was a big part as to why Labour swept into power in 1997.
Most new Prime Minister’s get a bounce in the polls but an MRP poll conducted before the disastrous mini-budget showed the Tories down by two points and Labour up three points compared to August. That puts Labour 12 percentage points up and on course for a 56-seat majority.
Personally I’m very skeptical of MRP polling outside of election time as the electorate aren’t as tuned in as they are when they are actually considering who to vote for but even so, a new leader for an incumbent party should have received a bounce of sorts.
Those within the Tory party who didn’t believe in Liz Truss are already anonymously briefing against her with suggestions that letters are already going into the 1922 Committee. This is mind-boggling in one way but on the other hand, the Conservatives have been at war for years and with Brexit now done, they don’t have much to keep their broad coalition together.
I don’t think the 12/1 for her to leave this year is a great bet but heck, I do expect it to go shorter at points between now and the time Big Ben chimes to signal in 2023.
So it comes down to 2023 at 7/4 or 2024 at 13/8 as the best play. I’m ruling out 2025 or Later at 2025 as I never saw her making it to the next General Election. She had the support of less than one in seven Tory MPs in the first round of voting and only just snuck onto the ballot in the final round. When your own colleagues don’t think you are the best person for the job, you don’t have a lot of good will built up. Remember many of her own MPs will be worried about their own job prospects and if they think a different leader gives them the best chance at the next election, you can bet your bottom dollar that they’ll move against her.
I like her going next year at 7/4. She always figured to be a bit of a caretaker PM as she had so little support from her colleagues. The new way of electing Tory leaders always put her in a good position to win the job but getting the keys to No. 10 and knowing what to do with them are two very different things.
If the economy continues to go backwards then the vultures will start circling at an ever-increasing rate. Going into a General Election right now with a Truss/Kwarteng partnership looks like a grim prospect for those who wear the blue rosette and with the Tories odds against to have the most seats in the next GE for the first time in over a decade, the markets indicate that they will need a real change of course to remain in power.