Going a mere 21 points up last week couldn’t eventually get the Ravens over the line for us – congrats to the Dolphins for an amazing comeback. As predicted here from the outset, the action is as sensational as ever this season in the NFL.

Ok – opening match of week 3 tonight – Steelers @ Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland (01.15am UK, Fri). Both stand at 1-1, and the Browns will be smarting from a narrow reverse against the Jets the other day. Pittsburgh were turned over by the Pats, so both look to get back to winning ways.

A tight one is envisaged, with the total pitched at a derisory 36.5. In prospect, it can’t match up in any way shape or form to the contest we’re about to take a look at, but let’s hope for an enthralling affair in its own way.

Trubisky looked to struggle to get any meaningful offense going for the Steelers the other day, but the Browns’ D did concede 31 to the Jets. Not a good portent.

I’ve got to take that total on, frankly, to a very small stake. Over 36.5 it is then, for a little added interest. Let’s hope for some offensive joy. In a nice way.

It’s early doors admittedly, but you can’t fail to be impressed right now by the Bills. The Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs axis is functioning beautifully (below), and they’re looking pretty solid in defense, too. I’ve seen worse 4/1 shots – the price currently available for Super Bowl success in Arizona on Feb 12th. Allen (above) is MVP material.

Courtesy of NFL Films/NFL Twitter

All of this leads me nicely into what is surely the match-up of the weekend. Sunday, 6pm, at The Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The high-flying Miami Dolphins entertain those would-be SB heroes the Buffalo Bills for what should be an absolute belter.

For the home team, QB Tua Tagovailoa had a day and then some last week in that astonishing comeback against the Ravens. He threw for 469 yards (!!), 6 TDs, and just to add to the excitement, 2 interceptions. Receiving superstar Tyreek Hill, surprisingly prised from Kansas, was found on 11 occasions, for a total of 190 yards. Baltimore arguably melted, but Miami certainly brought the heat.

The Bills are similarly 2-and-0, and their own offensive superstars are functioning beautifully too. Both inhabit the AFC of course, but while Buffalo are just 2/1 for ultimate Conference glory, you can get 10/1 about Miami. The Bills therefore are warm money line favs here on Sunday at around 2/5, with the Dolphins trading at 2/1.

The total stands at 53.5. Rarely has a figure looked to be in such potential jeopardy (famous last words)! I can’t see Buffalo capitulating as Baltimore did last weekend however, and I can see Buffalo having some joy, as did the Ravens, initially. It’s Bills -6.5 on the spread, a TD basically, and I can see them being an endzone visit ahead or better at the death.

How they handle Hill will be key – as will how they limit a scampering Tua extending plays. Bills’ have their own virtuoso under centre in Allen, and he’s a massive multiple threat too.

What a match in prospect, frankly, and I can’t wait. The recommendation is under 53.5 @ 10/11 in the hope that Buffalo’s D can contain Cheetah and company, with Buffalo covering that -6.5 spread @ 10/11.

Catch FredZone again in a couple of days, looking at more of the weekend’s action.

NFL Betting

Alan Firkins